A simple four-pronged plan for the GOP to win a majority in the US Senate in November

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Republicans can easily take back a majority of the US Senate by focusing on a four-pronged strategy to lock in GOP-held seats and reversing weaker Democrat-held seats without distracting from the establishment media or Democrats.

Much of the media and the political elite has spent the past week or so in a huddle over whether the “red wave” in November has been canceled, a few Democrat victories in the dog days of summer and a weaker-than-expected Republican war. Nominees in the states of the field.

But the fact of the matter is, nothing has really changed since earlier this year, when primary voters picked candidates to represent the party in November. A 50-50 Senate with a map where the GOP is playing a lot of defense with a handful of pickup opportunities likely puts the Republican takeover of Chambers on a coin toss or maybe a little better than that.

In other words: all Republicans need to do is do a net seat flip to get Gavels back in the Senate.

Strategically breaking down the map, the route is actually pretty easy for Republicans and will really focus on just five states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. But to get there, at that main event on November 8, Republicans need to first look at the big picture across the country and then zoom in from there.

There are technically 34 of the 100 US Senate seats in November — 35 if one counts the special election for the seat of Retired Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) of Oklahoma — but there are actually only a dozen of those potential competitors. .

As long as Republicans hold all the red state seats without surprises—such as both seats in Oklahoma, the seat of Alabama, the seat of North Dakota, the seat of Indiana, and so on—they’ll be in a prime position to have a shot at a majority. .

The first tier of seats to look for in this four-pronged strategy includes those red states and the traditional battlefield Republicans need to hold completely to gain a majority: North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Florida. and Iowa.

State Attorney General Eric Schmidt speaks at an election-night gathering after winning the Republican primary for the US Senate at the Sheraton in Westport Plaza on August 02, 2022 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Kelly Rivas/Getty Images)

vote ohio And Iowa suggests the GOP is likely to do very well in both of those places, and seems a lock for Missouri Republicans after Attorney General Eric Schmidt wins the GOP nomination. North Carolina is tight, but Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) is a strong general election candidate and the Republican won the state in almost every recent statewide national election from a decade ago. Florida, meanwhile, is running more and more in the red, and with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) holding the top of the ticket, it’s very likely that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will pull it up against Rep. Takes. Val Demings (D-FL) Even though some recent polls have suggested a closer race than expected.

If Republicans capture them all, the attention shifts to another level of race: The GOP’s seats are defending, but much harder to hold. The two states in Tier Two are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is a two-term incumbent who is seeking a third term after more than a decade of legislative successes. His Democrat opponent is Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, a staunch socialist whom Republicans have barely begun to expose. While some polls show Johnson a bit behind, expect the race to change a lot between now and election day. It’s also worth noting how badly every pollster got in Wisconsin in 2020. There’s no reason to believe that pollsters have changed their ways, so it’s likely that Johnson is going to do just as well out there as former President Donald Trump.

Pennsylvania is a bit tough for Republicans. After a grueling primary, Dr. Mehmet Oz emerged victorious by a recount, which dragged the fight for weeks after defeating businessman David McCormick this spring. Oz has been slow to pull out of the starting block against Democrat candidate Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman – and some public polls have suggested that Fetterman may be ahead by about 20 points. But other polls have just been released from Trafalgar It shows A very tough race, and as Republicans focus on Fetterman’s radical views on crime, the race, in particular, has shown considerable tightening. Even CNN’s Jake Tapper, a native of Pennsylvania, accepted that this weekend.

Tier three is where things get interesting. This is where Republicans have the opportunity to flip seats from Democrat control back into the hands of the GOP. The three best pickup opportunities for the GOP in November of this year are Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.

In Nevada, some polling has shown GOP candidate Adam Laxault leading Democrat Sen. Cathy Cortez Masto (D-NV) – while other polls show Masto ahead. In Arizona, the GOP’s Blake Masters has just emerged from the primary and the first poll shows him against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) — but Republicans are expected to unite and put the heat on Kelly soon, so hopefully tightening up. For. And in Georgia, GOP nominee Herschelle Walker — one-time Heisman Trophy winner and retired NFL star running back — is running neck and neck with incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA). Warnock has loads of personal belongings, and Walker has it too, so that the race is a mud-slinging festival between the two sides.

FILE - In this September 25, 2021, file photo Senate candidate Herschelle Walker speaks during former President Donald Trump's Save America rally in Perry, Ga.  On Wednesday, October 27, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell endorsed Herschel Walker's Republican primary bid.  Senate seat in Georgia.  (AP photo/Ben Grey, file)

In this September 25, 2021, file photo, Senate candidate Herschelle Walker speaks during former President Donald Trump’s Save America rally in Perry, GA. (AP photo/Ben Grey, file)

The takeaway from all of the above is simple, though: If the GOP can hold on to Tier One, it has a clear path to a Senate majority through Tier Three, depending on what happens in Tier Two. In a scenario where the GOP captures all tier one and both tier second seats, Republicans only need one seat from tier three to take a majority. In a scenario where the GOP holds all tier one, and loses one of tier two, the GOP requires only two of tier three. And in a scenario where the GOP captures all tier one but loses both tier two, the GOP can still win a majority in all three tier three seats.

Here’s the best part for Republicans: They can get a majority by hitting one of those scenarios with tiers one to three, even without talking about the tier four races that Republicans have. All GOP pickups are opportunities, albeit a potentially tough race. Tier four races include, in particular, New Hampshire – likely to change hands in this tier – but also places like Colorado and Illinois. All three of those states have elected GOP senators in recent history. But in addition to those states, Republicans are also bullish on the prospects in Washington state, where GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley is voting alongside underperforming Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), and possibly even in Connecticut where longtime Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-W. D-CT) faces Trump-backed GOP candidate Leora Levy.

So, again, while some in the establishment media may announce this election 70 days before it happens—a few days before it happens, it’s not over—and may even be a GOP advantage. depending on how some of these contests develop after Labor Day.

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