Three Transformational Developments Since Putin’s War Against Ukraine

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This week marks six months of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine. Our CIA must assess with great concern the trajectory of the bloodiest land war in Europe since World War II and its impact on Putin’s regime. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine has made many excuses for Putin’s “special military campaign”, but only to hide that he is at war with democracy to preserve his legacy, to protect the security of his regime, and sets the stage for a successor to follow. monstrous path.

a western oriented Ukraine Focused on economic and strategic integration with Europe and the US, Putin’s dictatorship is a potential threat to autocracy. Nothing threatens Putin more than a democratic Ukraine, with its Russian-speaking population, which will serve as a beacon of hope for Russian citizens whose human rights Putin ruthlessly suppress. Putin falsely labels the Ukrainian Democrats as “fascists” and deliberately scares them most – freedom, liberty and democracy – with non-existent military threats. Painting Russia as a besieged fortress only he can defend, Putin dialed his propaganda machine back in 1941 when the enemy was at the door, and only Russian military and intelligence services To protect the motherland can be counted.

The Pentagon reportedly estimated the Russian military had suffered at least 80,000 casualties and lost at least 4,000 armored vehicles. Putin is now relying on the Wagner group and other mercenaries to continue fighting, while his army is forced to deploy Soviet-era weapons and tanks as supplies have been severely depleted and exhausted. has occurred.

But Putin’s propaganda persists despite a poorly designed and executed war plan, which failed to topple the Zelensky government and resulted in a costly war. The sanctions from the West are nowhere near enough to bring about a change in Putin’s strategy. Russia’s energy exports have grown nearly 40 percent this year to more than $300 billion. NATO’s provision of military support has kept Ukraine in the fighting but not enough to turn the tide of the war.

US warns Russia of civilian attack as Ukraine’s Independence Day approaches

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis is only getting worse by the day, as does the intensity of the shock to the global economy. And fighting in and around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant threatens another humanitarian catastrophe.

Putin’s grueling war has resulted in at least three major transformational developments that indicate the Kremlin is prepared to remain in a long-haul battle and negotiate only on its own terms.

FirstOfficials in the Biden administration have rightly emphasized the value of Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, which will make the alliance stronger and more capable of defending itself against any future Russian aggression. But looking at the world through Putin’s twisted KGB eyes, we should expect the Kremlin to use this latest round of NATO expansion to bolster its claims of a NATO military threat to Russia, even if NATO is a Defensive alliance. Putin aims to spur his propaganda to strengthen the security of his regime.

anotherPutin has begun moving Russia into China’s orbit as the financially supportive junior partner is increasingly dependent on the Chinese market for its hydrocarbon exports. Even if for now Russia is forced to rely on its dwindling supply of military equipment and Iranian drones, signs of an increasingly close alliance are ominous. China and Russia stepped up their joint military exercises to promote their interactivity.

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thirdPutin has aggressively clamped down on suppressing domestic discontent, while dialing up the Kremlin’s control over Russia’s intelligence services by using FSB chief foreign intelligence Sergei Beseda to account for Russia’s intelligence failures at the start of the war. Russian intelligence services have been forced to tell Putin what he wants to hear, not what he wants to know. They spread Putin’s propaganda, but they know the truth about the extent to which Putin’s war in Ukraine has eroded Russia’s economic, military and strategic position in the world.

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At this point however, there is no indication that Putin’s inner circle believes that betting on Putin is a losing proposition. And so there is no end to Putin’s strategy of raining hell on Ukraine, which sits on the geopolitical fault line between dictatorship and democracy.

So what is the question for the Biden administration? additional policy measures Will it act with the greatest urgency in coordination with our NATO allies, to favorably change the trajectory and successful conclusion of this devastating and dangerous war?

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